Welcome to the 2008 Presidential Election Tracking Statistics Page, brought to you by Irregular Times. On this page, we bring together a variety of metrics by which the progress of various candidates for the presidency can be measured against one another. This is pure horserace information of a decidedly online bent. Follow the links on the right to uncover more substantive information about candidate positions, legislative records, campaign finance, primary schedules, election registration information and more.

Tracking Statistics

Election 2008 Bumper Sticker Tracking Straw Poll, April 6-12 08

Another week has passed in the 2008 presidential race, and that means it's time to take another peak at our Election-related sales. Since the election debacle of 2004, we've kept track of committed support for various 2008 presidential contenders, indicated by sales of Election 2008 bumper stickers, magnets, campaign buttons, and American Apparel t-shirts. Lately we’ve added yard signs, lapel stickers and union made t-shirts supporting Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as well. While polls measure fickle opinions, our measure tracks the stronger commitment marked by the laying down of cash to promote a candidate in public. The more strongly committed are more likely to actually get out there and vote. The following is the percent share of sales of our Election 2008 gear in the past week of April 6 to April 12, 2008:

Barack Obama 2008: 88.0%
Hillary Clinton 2008: 11.8%
Mike Gravel 2008: 0.2%

Another great week of sales for Barack Obama. Another not-so-great week of sales for Hillary Clinton. Another disastrous week of sales for Mike Gravel.

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Republican Party Presidential Sticker Straw Poll Results, January 6-12 2008

Here at Irregular Times, we don’t believe in the agenda of the Republican Party or its presidential candidates, and we won’t sell a bumper sticker, button, shirt or other item in promotion of a Republican candidate until we find a Republican candidate whose vision we agree with. That hasn’t happened yet, and we aren’t holding our breath.

However, CafePress does offer a number of stickers, buttons, shirts and other thingamajigs in promotion of Republican party presidential candidates. Now that Cafepress is releasing sales statistics for the presidential candidates, we can see how sales have been trending for the Republican presidential candidates lately. The sale of items like bumper stickers, buttons, shirts and posters indicates a stronger commitment than a simple poll response because it involves the spending of money and because it results in a person’s public declaration of support for a candidate. The more strongly committed are more likely to caucus or to vote. As the 2008 presidential race quickly moves to a national scale, tracking strong commitment to presidential candidates at the national level becomes more important.

The following is the percent distribution of all 2008 GOP candidate sales sold by all CafePress in the past week of January 6 to January 12, 2008:

Last week, Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee was the runaway favorite among shoppers looking to show their committed support for a Republican presidential candidate, garnering 58.4% of all GOP candidate sales. Coming in a distant second was Ron Paul, with 24.6%. John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudolph Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter were much further back than those two, each accounting for less than 10% of all GOP presidential sticker sales.

If we pool sales of items supporting Democratic presidential candidates, Republican presidential candidates and third party candidates together, it becomes clear that there’s a lot more interest in expressing committed support for Democrats than for Republicans or third party candidates. Democratic candidates grabbed 61.1% of all presidential candidate sales on CafePress last week. Republican candidate sales accounted for 37.2% of presidential candidate sales, and third party candidates accounted for the remaining 1.7%.



Related Posts:
--Ron Paul’s Supporters Cannot Admit Defeat
--Huckabee Desperate To Sell Self As Gateway To Better Things
--Giuliani and Fred Thompson Bomb in Michigan


Tracking 2008: Mainstream Media Articles on Candidates 9-14 to 9-20 2007

We’ve been tracking trends in Election 2008 button, bumper sticker and t-shirt sales for almost three years to see how the Democrats fare against one another. On Monday we started looking at official campaign website traffic ratings for Democratic, Republican, Green and Independent candidates for president, and on Tuesday we began tracking these candidates’ MySpace friends. Starting today, we’ll keep track of the number of news reports regarding each candidate appearing in the mainstream news, as catalogued by the Google News database (it’s particularly helpful that Google News has recently done away with duplicate appearances of wire service articles). Does the mainstream news media cover the presidential campaign with a different set of priorities than are reflected in the online popularity of candidates? Here's a way to find out. These are the number of news articles found in the Google News database for candidates of each party (and no party) during the one-week period of September 14-20, 2007:

Joseph Biden : 5,952
Hillary Clinton : 15,921
Christopher Dodd : 8,164
John Edwards : 15,015
Mike Gravel : 376
Dennis Kucinich : 1,793
Barack Obama : 20,900
Bill Richardson : 5,597

Sam Brownback : 2,613
Rudolph Giuliani : 16,505
Mike Huckabee : 4,478
Duncan Hunter : 2,057
Alan Keyes : 240
John McCain : 14,243
Ron Paul : 2,702
Mitt Romney : 14,428
Tom Tancredo : 615
Fred Thompson : 11,177

Orion Karl Daley : 0
Kelcey Wilson : 0

Jared Ball : 2
Jerry Kann : 0
Kent Mesplay : 0
Joe Schriner : 0
kat swift : 0

Among the Democrats, the order of excitement regarding candidates online roughly matches the attention provided to candidates in mainstream media news articles, with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards on top. Among Republicans, however, Ron Paul seems to be getting relatively short shrift when one compares online popularity with newsprint mentions. He has the most MySpace friends of all Republican candidates, and his website’s popularity is the highest among all candidates regardless of political party. It’s a cliche, but there is a difference between the online and offline worlds.

Should we pity Mike Gravel and Alan Keyes for garnering so few press mentions in the past week, even though this was the very week that Alan Keyes jumped into the race? Well, perhaps a bit of pity is called for — Mike Gravel’s been banned (along with Dennis Kucinich) from a September 2007 AARP Debate (PBS, 8 PM EST) for not being "major" enough. But before we shed too many tears, consider the level of coverage of Green Party and independent presidential candidates. With the exception of Jared Ball, these alternative candidates have earned nothing but goose eggs in the past week.


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Which Presidential Candidate is the Biggest Idiot?

Last night, Jim reported on the shifts in presidential candidate rankings on Alexa. Of the Republican side, Alan Keyes had the greatest increase, due to his sudden, unexpected announcement that he will be a presidential candidate. On the Democratic side, Dennis Kucinich had a similar surge, but without such an easy explanation.

These statistics are useful for those who are tracking the paths of the 2008 presidential candidates in a general way. However, I wanted to get a more particular and pointed picture of the candidates’ standing. So, I decided to do a comparative Google search to see which presidential candidate is the biggest idiot.

I searched on Google for the phrase “____ is an idiot”, with ____ being the first and last name of the candidate, except in cases like those of Joseph Biden, who is often referred to by different versions of his first name - Joe and Joseph. In such cases, I searched for only the last name - “Biden is an idiot”, for example.

The following are the results, from the least results to the most.

Duncan Hunter is an idiot. - 3
Sam Brownback is an idiot. - 4
Mike Huckabee is an idiot. - 4
Bill Richardson is an idiot. - 4
Mike Gravel is an idiot. - 5
Alan Keyes is an idiot. - 9
Fred Thomspon is an idiot. - 755
Dodd is an idiot. - 1,040
Tom Tancredo is an idiot. - 1,810
Dennis Kucinich is an idiot. - 1,830
Barack Obama is an idiot. - 2,300
Biden is an idiot. - 2,790
Giuliani is an idiot. - 3,250
Mitt Romney is an idiot. - 3,340
John McCain is an idiot. - 3,720
John Edwards is an idiot. - 5,730
Ron Paul is an idiot. - 7,420
Hillary Clinton is an idiot. - 7,630

Here’s the same information, given in graphic format:

presidential candidate 2008 idiot index chart

Now the question comes to my mind: What does this mean?

The most straightforward interpretation is that the candidates with the most results are the biggest idiots. That would mean that Hillary Clinton is the biggest idiot of them all, with 7,630 web sites declaring her to be an idiot. Of course, that interpretation requires the belief that somebody is an idiot if a lot of people say so.

There are other reasons for people to call someone an idiot than that the candidate actually is an idiot. For example, a person who is threatened by the power of the ideas presented by a presidential candidate might call that candidate an idiot as an act of resentment. In this aspect, the most capable candidates should be called idiots the most often, as they’re in the best position to threaten people who don’t agree with them. It isn’t likely, for example, that Mike Huckabee is so much less an idiot than Hillary Clinton. He is, however, dramatically less consequential than Hillary Clinton. There isn’t as much reason for Democrats to call Mike Huckabee an idiot as there is reason for Republicans to call Hillary Clinton an idiot.

Then there’s the issue of time. How long have people had to care enough about a candidate to bother calling the candidate an idiot? In the case of Hillary Clinton, it’s been about 16 years. In the case of Ron Paul, however, most people have only known about him for a few months now. It’s worthy of remark, therefore, that already almost as many web pages are up saying that Ron Paul is an idiot than there saying that Hillary Clinton is an idiot.

So, I’m not sure how useful this Idiot Index really is. It’s more complicated than it at first appears to be. If people are willing to consider these many factors, though, perhaps the Idiot Index can contribute to a more holistic assessment of the relative idiocy of the presidential candidates of 2008.

That assessment starts with you. Taking a look at the results above, combined with what you already know about the presidential candidates of 2008, which candidate do you think is the biggest idiot?


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Tracking 2008: Candidates’ MySpace Friends, October 3 2007

We’ve been looking at sales statistics for items supporting the 2008 presidential contenders since way back in 2004, but lately we’ve started looking at indicators of traffic to campaign websites, Google News mentions, and even a google idiot index.

Then there is the number of MySpace friends brandished by each candidate on that flashy, seizure-inducing internet behemoth. To whom do social networkers pledge their political allegiance? Here are the MySpace rankings for candidates of each party (and no party) bridging two dates, starting on September 25, 2007 and ending up on October 3, 2007:

9/25/2007 10/3/2007 Change
Democrats
Barack Obama: 177,548 friends 179,426 friends (1,878 new friends)
Hillary Clinton: 56,242 friends 56,651 friends (409 new friends)
John Edwards: 47,085 friends 48,044 friends (959 new friends)
Dennis Kucinich: 31,360 friends 31,956 friends (596 new friends)
Bill Richardson: 20,390 friends 20,437 friends (47 new friends)
Joseph Biden: 14,255 friends 14,267 friends (12 new friends)
Mike Gravel: 9,965 friends 10,233 friends (268 new friends)
Christopher Dodd: 8,747 friends 8,710 friends (37 fewer friends)
Independents
Orion Karl Daley: no myspace page no myspace page (no new friends)
Kelcey Wilson: 63 friends 67 friends (4 new friends)
Greens
Jared Ball: 28 friends 34 friends (6 new friends)
Jerry Kann: no myspace page no myspace page (no new friends)
Kent Mesplay: no myspace page no myspace page (no new friends)
Joe Schriner: no myspace page no myspace page (no new friends)
kat swift: 119 friends 119 friends (no new friends)
Republicans
Ron Paul: 64,280 friends 66,495 friends (2,215 new friends)
John McCain: 36,366 friends 39,166 friends (2,800 new friends)
Mitt Romney: 30,417 friends 30,777 friends (360 new friends)
Sam Brownback: 11,018 friends 10,906 friends (112 fewer friends)
Fred Thompson: 9,569 friends 10,787 friends (1,218 new friends)
Rudolph Giuliani: 8,170 friends 8,364 friends (194 new friends)
Mike Huckabee: 7,264 friends 7,487 friends (223 new friends)
Duncan Hunter: 6,805 friends 6,741 friends (64 fewer friends)
Tom Tancredo: 4,019 friends 4,014 friends (5 fewer friends)
Alan Keyes: 274 friends 270 friends (4 fewer friends)

Democrat Christopher Dodd and Republicans Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Alan Keyes have actually suffered a net loss of MySpace friends over the past eight days. Alan Keyes is in his second straight week of losing friends, which matches his second straight week of being a presidential candidate. Barack Obama is still the most popular candidate on MySpace by far, and overall the Democrats are more popular than the Republicans, but the Republicans gained more new friends this week, coming closer to Democratic levels of friends.

We’ll take a look at the MySpace pages again after another week or so to see who’s trending up and down.


Alexa Rankings of Candidate Websites, 9/14/07

For almost three years now, we at Irregular Times have been tracking the share of sales of buttons, bumper stickers and t-shirts that promote the Democratic contenders for the presidency. We’d track Green and Republican Party candidates in this regard, but nobody’s bought anything of ours that favors a Green Party candidate for president, and there’s no way we’re going to sell anything promoting one of the Republican presidential candidates, so there you are. But there are other ways of tracking the progress of the various candidates of the political parties out there, and now that Labor Day 2007 is past us and the 2008 presidential season is upon us, track we shall.

Let’s start off by considering Alexa rankings. Alexa is the website that decided way back to offer an internet archive. That’s proven a bit tricky for the company to maintain, but they continue to collect information on site visits for websites across the ‘net. Alexa uses a combination of visitors and page views to a website (from users of the Alexa toolbar) to calculate a page rank. The most visited site in the whole internet would have a rank of 1, and the least visited website — well, that would get a big fat blank. Bottom line: the lower the page rank, the more visits and visitors a web page has been getting lately.

The following are the Alexa page ranks of Democratic, Green, Independent and Republican presidential candidates as of September 14, 2007:

Democratic Party
Joseph Biden : 222,965
Hillary Clinton : 44,328
Christopher Dodd : 293,475
John Edwards : 66,688
Mike Gravel : 169,985
Dennis Kucinich : 240,300
Barack Obama : 22,551
Bill Richardson : 237,610

Green Party
Jared Ball : 7,254,770
Jerry Kann : no visits by alexa users
Kent Mesplay : no visits by alexa users
Joe Schriner : 6,258,456
kat swift : 6,353,556

Independents
Orion Karl Daley : 6,621,929
Kelcey Wilson : no visits by alexa users

Republican Party
Sam Brownback : 328,365
Rudolph Giuliani : 124,228
Mike Huckabee : 219,294
Duncan Hunter : 397,286
John McCain : 144,333
Ron Paul : 20,222
Mitt Romney : 74,959
Tom Tancredo : 410,933
Fred Thompson : 139,887

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Additional Presidential Campaign News and Resources:

2008 Presidential Election Resource Center
Alexa rankings, Myspace friends, Newsfutures bets, Candidate sales, and Most Popular Running Mate combinations

2008 Campaign Bumper Stickers

Democratic Presidential Campaign Buttons

Election Information
2008 State-by-State Presidential Primary Schedule
2008 National Election Timeline
Interactive Electoral College Map
Electoral College Calculator


Voting Resources
Register to Vote
Become a Poll Worker


Debate Schedule
(from You Decide 2008)

Democrats:

April 26, 2007: MSNBC Democratic debate from South Carolina
Jun 3, 2007: CNN Democratic debate from New Hampshire
June 28, 2007: PBS Democratic presidential debate at Howard University in Washington, DC
July 23, 2007: YouTube/Google and CNN in Charleston, SC
August 8, 2007: The AFL-CIO MSNBC Democratic debate from Soldier Field in Chicago
August 9th, 2007: Homosexual issues debate sponsored by LOGO and HRC on LOGO @ 9pm est
August 19, 2007: ABC in Des Moines, IA
September 26, 2007: NBC News/MSNBC** in Hanover, NH
Oct. 21, 2007: ABC News, WMUR-TV, and the New Hampshire Union Leader host a Democratic presidential debate in NH
October 30, 2007: NBC News/MSNBC** in Philadelphia, PA
November 15, 2007: CNN* in Las Vegas, NV
December 10, 2007: CBS in Los Angeles, CA
Jan. 6, 2008: The Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television host a Democratic presidential debate in Johnson, IA
Jan. 15, 2008: The Caucus of African American Nevadans and Impacto host a Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas, NV
Jan. 31, 2008: CNN and the Los Angeles Times host a debate of the Democratic presidential candidates in California

Republicans:
May 3, 2007: MSNBC Republican debate from California
May 15, 2007: FOX News Republican debate video from South Carolina
June 5, 2007: CNN Republican debate from New Hampshire
Aug. 5, 2007: The ABC News Republican debate from Iowa
Sep. 5, 2007: FOX News at New Hampshire’s Whittemore Center 9pm
Sep. 17, 2007: Values Voter Presidential Debate from Florida @ 7:30pm
Sep. 27, 2007: PBS hosts a debate of the 2008 Republican presidential candidates at Morgan State University in Baltimore, MD
Oct. 14, 2007: ABC News, WMUR-TV, and the New Hampshire Union Leader host a Republican NH
Oct. 21, 2007: The Florida Republican Party and Fox News host a GOP presidential debate in Orlando, FL
Nov. 6, 2007: MSNBC hosts a Republican presidential debate at Iowa State University in Ames, IA
Nov. 28, 2007: YouTube/Google and CNN in Florida
Jan. 5, 2008: The Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television host a Republican presidential debate in Johnson, IA
Jan. 30, 2008: CNN and the Los Angeles Times host a debate of the Republican presidential candidates in California